Baskın Oran, Ankara University
Political and Geostrategic Context of the Turkish Membership

Özet

I can summarize Turkey-EC relations in 5 chronological as well as thematic sections :

1) 1960s- mid1970s: POSİTİVE
	- It’s the Cold War. Turkey is important geostrategically. 
- EEC is in competition with EFTA. Also, it isn’t sure of its own destiny.  
	- There aren’t many Turkish workers in Europe; therefore no reaction to them. On the contrary, because of the rising demand for foreign labor, they are much wanted. 

2) Mid-1970s-1990s: NEGATİVE

-	The Cold War is slowly ending, and Turkey’s geostrategic importance is fading.
-	EC’s future becomes brilliant.
-	After 1975 it’s the Oil Crisis; and Turkish workers attract reactions.
-	Ecevit of Turkey freezes the relations.
-	In 1980 Greece enters the Community and nationalist Papandreu is a major stumbling block for Turkey.
-	12 September 1980 junta regime destroys human rights in Turkey, and there is much reaction to it in the EC.
-	Cyprus, Kurdish, Armenian questions damage Turkey’s image. 

3) 1991-1999: NEGATİVE
	- The Cold War has ended.  EC is strategically at ease now; it’s no more on the war front. 
	- The Unexpected Mission: Former eastern European countries must be made member “to save them from Russia”, which will take considerable allocation.
	- Bitter legacy of the 12 September junta is very vivid; Kurdish and Armenian lobbies very active. 

4) 1999-2004: POSİTİVE
Greece under Simitis fears Turkey no more. She also wants to cut on military spending to enter the Euro area. She is no more an impediment to Turkish membership; on the contrary. 
On the other hand, geostrategic considerations are back:
- With 9/11 at the lap, EC now badly needs to:
1) claim that Democracy and Islam are not incompatible. For this, EC has only one case at hand: Turkey. 
2) build a military dimension.
- At the Laeken Summit in December 2001 EU decides to make the ESDP operational.
- - At the Brussels Summit in 2002 Turkey lifts its reservations pertaining to the ESDP.

	But Turkey has two grave disadvantages:
	1) She is not democratic enough.
	2) She is considered the Troyan Horse of the US. 
- In October 2001 starts the difficult-to-believe reforms in Turkey: 44 articles of the Constitution are changed and under the National Program 8 separate EU Reform Packages promulgated in a span of two years only. 
- On March 1st 2003 Turkish Parliament refuses to admit US troops to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq.   

On top of this comes the invasion of Iraq on 20 March 2003. EU is almost split in two: the nucleus, and smaller states under the real Troyan Horse. In a Europe without military dimension, these states fear a comeback of Russia. 
Upon which very important EU officials, at their head Mr. Verheugen, start to openly declare that Turkey is indispensable. 
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	………. (excerpts from these)
	
	- EU (Commission?) adopts the Strategy Document at the Bruxelles Summit on 12-13 December 2003, defining the Union, for the first time in 50 years, as “Global Actor”. 
- European Commission adopts the Impact Report on 6 October 2004 (buradan, konumuzu destekleyecek nereleri alınabilir?) 
The first section is entitled: “Geo-strategic Dimension”.

1. GEO-POLITICAL DIMENSION
Turkey is situated at a regional crossroads of strategic importance for Europe: the Balkans,
Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean; its territory is a transit route
for land and air transport with Asia, and for sea transport with Russia and the Ukraine. Its
neighbours provide key energy supplies for Europe, and it has substantial water resources. In
economic and demographic terms, Turkey is an important actor: it is the world’s 21st
economy in size, and as a member of the EU would be the biggest Member State in terms of
population. As a Moslem secular country with a functioning democracy, it is a factor for
stability in the region. Through its integration in the western alliance, and membership of
many economic and regional organisations, it contributes to the security of Europe and its
neighbourhood.

-	EU adopts the Parliamentary Report on 15 December 2004 (buradan neler alınabilir?)
II. whereas a continuation of the process of democratisation and the programme of socioeconomic
modernisation could lead Turkey to:
- play an important role in connection with a number of transnational issues (energy,
water resources, transport, border management, the fight against terrorism);
- have a positive influence on the development of secular democratic states in the
Islamic world as a counterweight to religious fundamentalism;
- have a positive impact on the EU's external policy achievements in a number of
potentially unstable neighbouring regions, such as the Mediterranean, the Middle
East, the Caucasus and Central Asia,

	(başka bir belgeden söz etmek de gerekli midir 20 dakika içinde?) 

5) Today: FOR THE MOMENT, NEGATIVE
- Domestic considerations take over the geostrategic dimension:
1) European public opinion shows severe reaction to Muslim workers and emigrants especially from N.Africa, resisting integration. Strengthened with his will reflect even to Strasbourg: The Court wil decide that in the case Leyla Sahin vs. Turkey headscarf cannot be worn at Turkish universities, while in Europe nobody would even think of meddling with the headgear of university students. Bunda, uluslararası “İslamcı” terörün etkisi de büyük.
2) Turkey is a scape-goat for those opposing, for various and conflicting reasons, the European Constitution. 

CONCLUSİON:

- TC’nin AB’ye girmesi esas olarak Türk dış politikasının şimdiye kadarki modeli çerçevesinde olacaktır: jeostratejik öneminin AB için yaşamsal olması halinde kabul edilecektir.
Bu açıdan 2003’te Irak’ın işgali, TC’nin 1950 yılına girmiş olmasını anımsatıyor. O tarihe kadar NATO TC’yi istemiyordu, Kore Savaşı patlayınca ABD korktu ve aldı. 
Şimdi de, TC’nin belli bir reform düzeyi tutturması şartıyla ve AB’nin iç sorunları aşması şartıyla, aynı şey olabilir. Çünkü AB, askerî boyut geliştirmeden bir challenger olamayacaktır ve olamadığı sürece de ikinci sınıf bir birlik olarak kalarak, aynen Irak savaşında görüldüğü gibi dağılmak tehlikesiyle karşılaşabilecektir. 
Bu askerî boyutu gerçekleştirmek için bir ordu kurmak şimdilik imkansızdır. Onun için, kriz bölgelerine (Balkanlar, Kafkaslar, özellikle de Ortadoğu) ulaşmak buna bir ikame olabilir. Bu üç bölgeye dünyada erişebilen tek ülke olan Türkiye’nin önemi de buradan çıkacaktır. Zaten yukarıdaki bütün alıntıların söylediği de bundan ibarettir. 
Böyle bir ilişki, her iki taraf için de çok yararlıdır (win-win): 
- 
Fakat:
-  2005’deki olumsuz iç durumun devamı halinde,
- ABD’nin emperyalist politikasına AB’nin uyum sağlaması halinde,
- ABD’nin emperyalizm politikasından vazgeçmesi halinde (kısa dönemde zayıf olasılık)
- TC’deki reformların yarattığı tepki sonucu bu ülkedeki yavaşlama kronikleşirse (zayıf olasılık),
Türkiye’nin bu klasik jeopolitik kozu anlamını yitirebilir ve olumsuzluk kronikleşebilir. .